The Consumer Edge Insight Center (CEIC) provides timely insight into holiday spending trends for consumer industries and individual brands built from credit and debit card transaction data. In this report, the CEIC uncovers winners and losers from the important Black Friday/Cyber Monday shopping period, highlighting key themes that could set the tone for the remainder of the season and the year ahead.
Key Black Friday Cyber Monday 2023 Takeaways
- CE transaction data indicates the U.S. consumer was resilient during the early stages of the important post-Thanksgiving shopping season, with Black Friday/Cyber Monday spend on credit and debit cards rising nearly +4% YoY, building on moderate gains last year. This strong performance provided a much needed boost to retailers, as spend growth softened throughout 2023, reaching its lowest monthly rate in October. Online sales growth outpaced brick and mortar for the first time since 2020, when shoppers avoided in-person shopping amid the COVID pandemic.
- Online retailers were key standouts on Black Friday/Cyber Monday, with sales growing +13% YoY on top of +3% growth in 2022. While Amazon (AMZN) is the dominant player in this space, the massive growth of newcomer Temu also added substantial sales dollars to this category compared to last year.
- The Discount/Club Industry performed very well (+8% this year on top of +6% last year), as strong sales growth seen throughout the year persisted, particularly via the online channel. Warehouse Clubs like BJ’s (BJ), Costco (COST), and Sam’s Club (WMT) powered those gains, along with discount store Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI), with the latter helped by robust store count growth. Target (TGT) was a notable weak spot, continuing its 2023 woes.
- Beauty sales bounced back after a soft 2022, with brick and mortar outpacing online. The industry’s +5% growth was powered by higher-end merchants like Lancome (OR-PAR), Sephora (MC-PAR), Ulta (ULTA), and Kiehl’s (OR-PAR), suggesting consumers were keen to take advantage of deals on premium items. Time will tell whether this strength persists after the holiday shopping season or if shoppers shift back to more affordable items.
- Apparel, Accessories, & Footwear posted strong results (+5% on top of +5% last year), led by Luggage/Travel Accessories (e.g. Beis Travel, Away Travel), Intimate Apparel/Accessories (e.g. Victoria’s Secret (VSCO), SKIMS), and Footwear/Athletic Apparel. Notably, the top performers in that category included high-end footwear brands UGG (DECK), On Running (ONON) and Rothy’s. For the industry overall, brick and mortar and online channels both contributed equally to the strength.
- Luxury was among the worst performers, although YoY declines moderated compared to Black Friday alone. Brands on the higher end of the spectrum such as Yves Saint Laurent (KER-PAR), Louis Vuitton (MC-PAR), and Gucci (KER-PAR) displayed weakness despite an easier base last year, as inflation squeezes real incomes and aspirational shoppers pull back on particularly pricey items.
- Home Improvement Retailers held up well, as homeowners opted to remodel instead of move amid pressures on housing affordability and availability. Home Depot (HD), Harbor Freight Tools, Sherwin-Williams (SHW), and Menards were among the drivers of this resilience.
Black Friday 2023 Performance by Industry & Subindustry
Winning industries this Black Friday were not surprising, with online retailers, discount department stores, sporting goods, toys, and apparel taking the lead. Luxury brands took a big hit in light of inflation this season.
BFCM 2023 Total Tagged Spend YoY: Ecommerce vs Brick & Mortar
BFCM 2023 Total YoY Spend Growth
BFCM 2023 Sales Performance by Industry
BFCM 2023 Sales Performance by Industry: Ecommerce vs Brick & Mortar
BFCM 2023 Top Sales Performers by Subindustry
BFCM 2023 Bottom Sales Performers by Subindustry
Consumer Edge is the leading provider of alternative data for consumer spending behavior, and the only provider of global revenue signals. Our data offers insights into not only the fast-paced BFCM holiday shopping season but across hundreds of industries, subindustries, tickers, and symbols year-round. If you’d like to benefit from using Transact US, CE Vision, or other products for industry market insights and shopper intelligence to track trends and dynamics like these, reach out to insights@staging.consumer-edge.com.
